How US forged an alliance with Ethiopia over invasion of Somalia

How US forged an alliance with Ethiopia over invasion
Xan Rice in Nairobi and Suzanne Goldenberg in Washington

(The Guardian - Saturday January 13, 2007) On December 4, General JohnAbizaid, the commander of US forces from the Middle East throughAfghanistan, arrived in Addis Ababa to meet the Ethiopian prime minister,Meles Zenawi. Officially, the trip was a courtesy call to an ally. Threeweeks later, however, Ethiopian forces crossed into Somalia in a war on itsIslamist rulers, and this week the US launched air strikes against suspectedal-Qaida operatives believed to be hiding among the fleeing Islamistfighters. "The meeting was just the final handshake," said a formerintelligence officer familiar with the region.Washington and Addis Ababa may deny it, but the air strikes this weekexposed close intelligence and military cooperation between Ethiopia andAmerica, fuelled by mutual concern about the rise of Islamists in the chaosof Somalia.Yesterday, the Washington Post reported that US military personnel enteredsouthern Somalia this week to verify who was killed in Monday's air strike.It was the first known instance of US boots on the ground in Somalia sincethe Black Hawk Down catastrophe, when 18 US soldiers were killed by Somalimilitiamen, the paper claimed. But Pentagon officials and intelligenceanalysts say a small number of US special forces were on the ground beforeEthiopia's intervention in an operation planned since last summer, soonafter the Islamic Courts Union took control of Mogadishu. Press reports havesaid US special forces also accompanied the Ethiopian troops crossing intoSomalia.The main cause of delay was the weather. Mark Schroeder, Africa analyst atthe intelligence consulting firm Stratfor, said the critical turning pointwas the end of the rain season. "While Ethiopia could move small numbers oftroops and trucks as a limited intervention into Somalia, they needed towait until the ground dried up." Once they did move in, the troops wereaccompanied by US special forces, analysts say. For America, therelationship with Ethiopia provides an extra pair of eyes in a region thatit fears could become an arena for al-Qaida. "The Ethiopians are the primarysuppliers of intelligence," said one analyst. However, he said, it wasalmost inconceivable that the US would not have sent its special forces intoSomalia ahead of the Ethiopian intervention. "You are going to want to haveyour own people on the ground." In return, the US is believed to haveprovided the Ethiopians with arms, fuel and other logistical support for amuch larger intervention than it has previously mounted in Somalia. It hasalso made available satellite information and intelligence from friendlySomali clans, a former intelligence officer said.America's renewed interest in the Horn of Africa dates to November 2002 whenthe US military established its joint taskforce in Djibouti, now the basefor 1,800 troops, including special operations forces. By then, the west hadgood reason to fear that Africa had become an arena for al-Qaida, and thatthe failed state of Somalia could become a haven for the organisation'soperatives. The bombing of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998and the attack on an Israeli-owned hotel in Mombasa gave cause for suchfears. So too did al-Qaida documents retrieved from Afghanistan that spokeof the organisation's ambitions in the region, says Bruce Hoffman, aterrorism expert at Georgetown University and the Council on GlobalTerrorism. "That this was a primary area of concern," he says. In fact, saysanother analyst, the US was closely considering a strike on suspectedal-Qaida cells in Somalia as early as 2002. That idea was abandoned. ButAmerica's concerns came to a head last year with the rise of the IslamicCourts Union. At first, Washington's response was relatively modest. Itmounted a small CIA operation, run from Nairobi, to stand up Somalia's hatedwarlords against the Islamists, a former intelligence official familiar withthe region says.The under-the-radar approach was necessitated by the state department'sopposition to any type of military intervention in Somalia. Until the middleof last year, diplomats remained hopeful of negotiations between the Somaligovernment and the Islamic Courts Union. That position, promoted by thestate department's top official for Africa, Jendayi Frazer, put diplomats ona collision course with the Pentagon. By last June, when the Islamistsseized Mogadishu, the Pentagon appeared to have won that bureaucraticstruggle. By then, the CIA operation was widely acknowledged as a disaster.Talks on peace and power-sharing between the Somali president AbdullahiYusuf's government and Islamic courts were foundering. A Somalia analyst inNairobi said the Islamists took most of the blame - unfairly, in his view,as the government had no intention of ever sharing power. "My guess is thata decision to wage war was taken sometime in October by Ethiopia andAmerica. That was when people close to Yusuf appeared dead convinced thatthe Seventh Cavalry was going to appear. We thought it was a pipedream. Itwasn't." As the build-up to war continued, with Ethiopia sending more troopsinto Somalia and the Islamists moving closer to the government base inBaidoa, experts say the cooperation between Addis and Washington increasedsharply.Help from the sea was also required. Landlocked Ethiopia has no navalcapacity, but the US could easily move warships from the Gulf to the Somalicoast - as happened once the conflict began. By mid-December Jendayi Frazer, the state department's top official forAfrica, was echoing the message from Addis Ababa about the dangers of theIslamic Courts Union. "The top layer of the courts are extremist to thecore," she said. "They are terrorists and they are in control." Days later, the Ethiopian forces were on the move. But many believe thatAmerica's support for Ethiopia's military intervention could come back tohaunt the US, and predict a flare-up of Somali nationalist feeling. Already,clan fighting is threatening to jeopardise attempts to restore stability.This week there have been at least three attacks on government forces. There is also concern that the precipitate flight of the ICU does notnecessarily signal its definitive defeat. Last night, the Ethiopian-backedSomali government forces said they had captured the last remainingstronghold at Ras Kamboni, just two miles from the Kenyan border. It may notbe the last confrontation between government forces and the Islamists. "The Islamists have not all gone away. Many we believe continue to be inMogadishu. They buried their weapons, and buried their uniforms, and theyare lying low and letting the dust settle," Mr Schroeder says (Source: The Guardian